After an average weekend that did not produce the breakout many were hoping for, bitcoin is holding on to the $50,000 zone.
Cointelegraph looks at five factors that could help shape future prices.
IPO Lighthouse part base in shallow macro sea
The stock markets came alive on Monday the 5th. April, unimpressive as many Asian markets were closed for the holidays and US futures barely moved.
After the fall of the Suez Canal, oil became the only significant commodity as the decision of the OPEC+ countries to increase supply put pressure on prices.
So, in the absence of momentum, bitcoin has barely withstood a price spike due to macroeconomic factors, and at the time of writing, the $60,000 resistance remains.
One of the main events that crypto analysts are looking forward to is Coinbase’s IPO, scheduled for the 14th. April is planned.
According to Cointelegraph, the event is an industry milestone, but could be accompanied by launch day sales – a practice seen in other IPOs, old and new.
Elsewhere, rising US bond yields remained a concern this week, and the upward trend was accompanied by a lack of progress across a broader range of safe havens.
The reassessment of U.S. risk and inflation data, which will affect the discount rate of future earnings and equity valuations, is a source of uncertainty, Johanna Chua, chief economist at Citigroup Global Markets, told Bloomberg.
Another uncertainty concerns vaccination coverage and the virus.
Analyst: Bitcoin faces a $3-5K bull run in 2021
Bitcoin may be struggling to find a new medium, but hodlers need to zoom out to see the real picture.
That was the sentiment of analysts on Monday as BTC/USD fell to $56,000.
After reaching the $60,000 level again on Friday, the price declined over the weekend, peaking at a drop to $56,500.
The subsequent increase has been moderate and at the time of writing $57,000 has been collected. A total of $1.5 million has been allocated as acting coordinator.
The battle of the support resistance is intense, Whalemap added Sunday about his current behavior.
The gauges from last week are working fine. Bitcoin reached a nice point at $60,045. Is this the calm before the storm?1-hour candlestick chart of BTC/USD (Bitstamp). Source: View of the shop
However, for popular Twitter analyst William Clement, there was little reason to be bearish on the longer time scales, supported by some positive intra-chain data.
This bitcoin bull run is far from overheating, according to several blockchain indicators, he summarized.
Compared to 2017, it looks like we will be in the 3k-5k range.
Clemente uploaded a comparison chart showing bitcoin’s price spikes from 2013 and 2017 using the Puell multiplier, a classic metric that continues to indicate there’s room for growth before you start selling at a profit.
This early position in the bull cycle implies that most of the bitcoin price rise is yet to come, which would give credibility to some of the higher year-end forecasts of $288,000 or more.
TheBTC/USD price comparison chart is twice as low. Source: William Clemente/Twitter
It is not sold
As for the sale of mining titles, this custom has not yet been established this month.
Although bitcoin has reached an all-time high, hash values on the network have reached an all-time high, and mining is difficult, the data shows that there is still no appetite for profits on mined coins.
Changes in miners’ net position, compiled by resource watchdog Glassnode, indicate that miners have been saving their newly acquired coins over the past week.
By contrast, 2021 saw widespread selling, particularly in January, when bitcoin first hit the $40,000 mark. Since then, however, sales have stagnated despite a steady – albeit slow – increase in prices.
Still no sell-off, still accumulation, still a clear trend, Quant analyst Lex Moskovsky commented on Glassnode’s numbers.
BTCminers net position change chart . Source: Glassnode
Miners are followed by exchanges, where BTC balances continue to decline. So dealers are no more interested in selling around $60,000 than anyone else.
ETF target of around 17,000 BTC held
We see that the bulls are institutions this month – and they are putting their money where their mouth is, as the latest figures show.
With open interest in the bitcoin futures markets at almost unprecedented levels, demand for institutional-grade products remains high if the price is right.
For example, Canada’s first licensed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the Bitcoin ETF Target Fund, continues to add BTC to its assets under management (AUM).
From 5 years old. April Assignment had 16,462 BTC and C$22.1 billion ($17.56 billion) in assets under management after launching the ETF just two months ago.
Purpose of the Bitcoin ETF BTC Holdings. Source: Bybt
According to Cointelegraph, it is likely that the US will follow Canada in marketing ETFs, with a range of products aimed at achieving multiples of what has been achieved by institutions in their home jurisdictions.
However, all this could come at the expense of a persistent institutional player, Grayscale, and its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).
In the battle over fees, GBTC could lose interest in a cheaper target, which is one of many Bitcoin offerings that lowers the company’s administrative costs for customers.
Time for situation detection channel
A classic indication of the mantra that the longer the outlook, the better, remains true for bitcoiners: the popular model of predicting stock prices of $288,000 or more.
As its creator, quantum analyst PlanB, noted Sunday, the Bull/Bear model’s detection signal has repeated its movements randomly since 2013 and 2017.
The accompanying chart showed that the BTC/USD spot price followed the expected trajectory, with no indication that the pattern was undone by a short rumble below $60,000.
The incarnation of the stock-to-flow method was the cross-asset method (S2FX), an updated version that puts bitcoin in the context of other macro assets and tracks its conversion to the new standard.
My favorite situational awareness board, PlanB wrote in the comments.
S2FX for coarse prediction of long-term levels (white line) combined with accurate intra-chain bull and arc detection signal (colored overlay). Cross-AssetBTC/USD (S2FX) of 4. April 2021. Source: PlanB/Twitter
S2FX is asking $288,000 for the end of 2021, which is the average price for the current half-cycle, which ends around April 2024. However, the highest price for it could be double the average price, or $576,000, according to PlanB.
frequently asked questions
Is it time to invest in bitcoin 2020?
Bitcoin was the top asset class of 2020, as shown in the chart below. … Following MicroStrategy, payment platform Square announced in October that it had invested $50 million in bitcoin, buying a total of 4,709 bitcoins. Square said the investment represents about 1% of its total assets.
What are the 5 most popular cryptocurrencies?
News Top 5 Cryptocorre…
Can you lose all your money in bitcoins?
Can you lose more money than you put into bitcoin? Assuming you don’t use leverage – no, you will never lose more money than you put into bitcoin. In the worst case scenario, BTC drops to zero, meaning that if you buy $10,000 worth of BTC, your $10,000 will be worth $0.
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